N006 sun-sim · vanish moment 2026-10-29T21:00:00Z (JD 2461343.37500) · Node v24.21.0 == (a) Light and gravity delay == PASS light time for 1 au matches JPL 499.004783836 s · 499.004784 s = 8 min 19.0 s closest (perihelion 147.095 million km): 8 min 10.7 s · farthest (aphelion 152.1): 8 min 27.4 s PASS Earth distance on the date is inside NSSDC perihelion–aphelion · 148.585 million km PASS Earth speed on the date is inside NSSDC min–max · 29.987 km/s On 2026-10-29T21:00:00Z: the last light AND the loss of pull arrive after 8 min 15.6 s (distance 148.585 million km = 92.33 million miles) Day side: the sky goes dark at the same moment (the extra path through ~100 km of air is 0.33 ms). Moon (reflected light): goes dark for us 0 to 2.56 s after the sky does (full Moon 2.56 s, half Moon about 1.28 s). Planet still visible AFTER our sky goes dark (reflected light already on its way), 12-year sweep of vanish dates: Venus on the date +3.21 s · range +0.03 s to +12 min 6.2 s · it loses the Sun's pull 6 min 1.0 s after the vanish Mars on the date +17 min 2.1 s · range +6 min 17.9 s to +27 min 40.6 s · it loses the Sun's pull 13 min 14.4 s after the vanish Jupiter on the date +81 min 55.5 s · range +65 min 43.8 s to +90 min 41.2 s · it loses the Sun's pull 44 min 11.7 s after the vanish Saturn on the date +2.35 h · range +2.23 h to +2.60 h · it loses the Sun's pull 78 min 23.7 s after the vanish Uranus on the date +5.13 h · range +4.91 h to +5.38 h · it loses the Sun's pull 2.69 h after the vanish Neptune on the date +8.03 h · range +7.99 h to +8.28 h · it loses the Sun's pull 4.14 h after the vanish (Venus near inferior conjunction is lost in the glare anyway; Uranus/Neptune are not naked-eye objects for most people.) wrote ghost-light.csv (6 rows) 2017 race: gravity ripples and the light flash traveled ~130 million light-years and arrived 1.74 s apart: a 4.24e-16 fraction of the trip. If gravity's changes were even 1% slower than light, they would have arrived about 1.31 million years late (our calc). == (b) Orbit sim: Earth + Moon after the pull switches off == wrote orbit-trace.csv (846 rows) Earth loses the pull at 8 min 15.6 s, the Moon at 8 min 16.9 s (full-Moon run). Straight-line speed of Earth+Moon after the switch-off: 29.987 km/s = 67080 mph = 107955 km/h PASS straight-line speed stays constant (no Sun, no drag) · -0.0 mm/s change over 10 years NYC→LA (3936 km) at that speed: 2 min 11.3 s After 1 day: traveled 2.591 million km (6.74 × the Earth–Moon distance); 0.9931 au from the Sun's old spot After 1 year: traveled 6.326 au (one lap of the old orbit = 6.241 au); 6.388 au from the Sun's old spot After 10 years: 63.25 au from the Sun's old spot (Pluto's average distance 39.48 au) PASS 1-day distance = speed × 1 day (straight line, ±0.1%) · 1.00000 Earth passes the old orbit distance of: Mars after 67.6 days Jupiter after 295.8 days Saturn after 548.5 days Uranus after 3.03 years Neptune after 4.75 years Pluto (mean) after 6.24 years The Moon after the switch-off (4 starting phases): phase 180°: BOUND · orbit 384400 km, period 27.28 d · Earth–Moon 384397–384403 km over 10 yr · speed 1.025 km/s vs escape 1.449 km/s PASS Moon stays bound (phase 180°) and between 300,000 and 480,000 km phase 0°: BOUND · orbit 384400 km, period 27.28 d · Earth–Moon 384397–384403 km over 10 yr · speed 1.025 km/s vs escape 1.449 km/s PASS Moon stays bound (phase 0°) and between 300,000 and 480,000 km phase 90°: BOUND · orbit 384400 km, period 27.28 d · Earth–Moon 384397–384403 km over 10 yr · speed 1.025 km/s vs escape 1.449 km/s PASS Moon stays bound (phase 90°) and between 300,000 and 480,000 km phase 270°: BOUND · orbit 384400 km, period 27.28 d · Earth–Moon 384397–384403 km over 10 yr · speed 1.025 km/s vs escape 1.449 km/s PASS Moon stays bound (phase 270°) and between 300,000 and 480,000 km The Moon would need to move 41% faster to escape. Jupiter on this date: closest approach 3.50 au (325 million miles) after 222.0 days; relative speed 33.4 km/s vs Jupiter's escape speed there 0.70 km/s; relative energy POSITIVE (cannot be captured) Jupiter sweep (4383 vanish dates, 12 years): closest any date gets = 0.014 au (1.3 million miles), vanish date +3637 days, relative speed 23.9 km/s dates passing within 0.1 au: 11; within 0.5 au: 124; smallest relative energy 1.266e+8 J/kg PASS Earth can never be captured by Jupiter (relative energy > 0 on every date) == (d) The 1-second blink == During the blink Earth drifts 3.003 mm off its path (analytic ½·a·t² = 3.006 mm = 0.118 in) PASS blink drift matches ½·a·t² within 2% missing push Δv = 6.01 mm/s; Hill-equation expectation: in-out wobble ±30.2 km, along-track drift up to 121 km at half a year, back after one year wrote blink-trace.csv (731 rows) our sim: largest gap from the old path 115.7 km after 177.6 days +0.25 yr: 67.61 km off (along-track -60.95 km = -2.02 s behind) +0.50 yr: 115.55 km off (along-track -115.53 km = -3.91 s behind) +0.75 yr: 59.90 km off (along-track -51.18 km = -1.74 s behind) +1.00 yr: 8.81 km off (along-track 8.81 km = 0.29 s ahead) +1.50 yr: 106.87 km off (along-track -106.85 km = -3.61 s behind) +2.00 yr: 17.61 km off (along-track 17.61 km = 0.59 s ahead) Earth's normal yearly in-out swing (aphelion − perihelion) = 5005000 km cooling during 1 s of darkness: 3.9e-5 to 3.9e-4 °C (our cooling-model air layers) == (c) Cooling model == air column 9999 kg/m² × cp 1001 J/kg/K = 1.001e+7 J/m²/K; today's effective emissivity (254/288)^4 = 0.6050; outgoing today 236.0 W/m² PASS land warm: cools monotonically PASS land warm: never below its geothermal floor · floor 39.9 K = -388 °F (-233 °C) PASS ocean warm: ice never thicker than the equilibrium 14338 m PASS land mid: cools monotonically PASS land mid: never below its geothermal floor · floor 37.2 K = -393 °F (-236 °C) PASS ocean mid: ice never thicker than the equilibrium 14861 m PASS land cold: cools monotonically PASS land cold: never below its geothermal floor · floor 35.2 K = -396 °F (-238 °C) PASS ocean cold: ice never thicker than the equilibrium 15278 m Our model, surface temperature (°F). LAND = far inland, no ocean heat blown in. OCEAN = sea surface, then the top of the ice. Global = crude 71/29 area average. time | land warm mid cold | ocean warm mid cold | ice m (warm–cold) | global warm cold 1 h | 58.6 58.1 56.4 | 58.7 58.7 58.7 | 0.0–0.0 | 58.7 58.1 6 h | 57.8 55.1 47.0 | 58.7 58.7 58.7 | 0.0–0.0 | 58.5 55.3 1 day | 55.3 45.8 23.5 | 58.6 58.6 58.4 | 0.0–0.0 | 57.7 48.3 2 days | 52.2 35.7 3.3 | 58.6 58.4 58.1 | 0.0–0.0 | 56.7 42.2 3 days | 49.3 27.1 -10.9 | 58.5 58.3 57.8 | 0.0–0.0 | 55.8 37.9 1 week | 38.7 1.9 -43.8 | 58.1 57.6 56.7 | 0.0–0.0 | 52.5 27.5 2 weeks | 23.7 -25.1 -71.4 | 57.5 56.5 54.6 | 0.0–0.0 | 47.7 18.1 1 month | -1.9 -58.6 -100.9 | 56.0 54.0 50.0 | 0.0–0.0 | 39.2 6.2 2 months | -31.8 -87.9 -125.4 | 53.4 49.4 41.8 | 0.0–0.0 | 28.7 -6.7 3 months | -51.0 -104.0 -139.0 | 50.8 45.0 34.2 | 0.0–0.0 | 21.3 -16.0 6 months | -84.0 -129.7 -161.1 | 43.3 32.7 -104.1 | 0.0–2.4 | 6.4 -120.6 1 year | -114.5 -153.3 -181.9 | 29.6 -115.9 -147.4 | 0.0–5.7 | -12.2 -157.4 2 years | -141.5 -175.1 -201.5 | -125.6 -156.1 -175.2 | 6.1–9.9 | -130.2 -182.8 5 years | -172.8 -201.6 -225.6 | -170.7 -190.3 -204.5 | 15.0–18.4 | -171.3 -210.6 10 years | -194.0 -220.2 -242.6 | -194.5 -211.3 -223.8 | 24.6–28.3 | -194.4 -229.3 100 yr | -253.4 -273.8 -291.6 | -255.5 -267.9 -277.4 | 99.9–107.4 | -254.9 -281.5 1,000 yr | -299.9 -315.9 -329.8 | -301.9 -311.7 -319.0 | 363.2–383.5 | -301.3 -322.2 10,000 yr | -335.4 -347.7 -358.3 | -337.7 -345.4 -351.2 | 1249.8–1307.8 | -337.1 -353.2 100,000 yr | -360.5 -369.8 -377.6 | -364.5 -370.5 -375.1 | 3963.2–4132.6 | -363.3 -375.8 1 Myr | -375.9 -383.0 -388.6 | -382.2 -387.2 -391.0 | 10163.2–10648.9 | -380.3 -390.3 2 Myr | -378.8 -385.4 -390.6 | -385.3 -390.2 -393.9 | 12264.7–12910.5 | -383.4 -393.0 wrote cooling-curves.csv (310 rows) Land: when the surface first gets this cold (warm case … cold case): 32 °F 9.9 days … 16.47 h (mid 2.4 days) 0 °F 29.0 days … 2.2 days (mid 7.4 days) -40 °F 72.5 days … 6.4 days (mid 19.8 days) -100 °F 260.5 days … 29.7 days (mid 82.4 days) colder than the coldest air ever measured (-128.6 °F) 518.5 days … 66.8 days (mid 176.6 days) -200 °F 12.3 years … 692.5 days (mid 4.71 years) oxygen turns liquid (~-297 °F) 863 years … 136 years (mid 336 years) nitrogen turns liquid (~-321 °F) 3.48e+3 years … 535 years (mid 1.33e+3 years) Ocean: the top layer reaches its freezing point (28.4 °F) after: warm (mixed layer 100 m): 381.7 days mid (mixed layer 75 m): 216.5 days cold (mixed layer 50 m): 115.5 days Ice lid grows to (warm … cold): 1 m: 409.7 days … 135.2 days (mid 239.5 days) 10 m: 3.12 years … 2.02 years (mid 2.44 years) 100 m: 100 years … 88.1 years (mid 93.1 years) 1000 m: 6.55e+3 years … 5.99e+3 years (mid 6.23e+3 years) 3682 m: 8.56e+4 years … 7.84e+4 years (mid 8.14e+4 years) 10935 m: 1.27e+6 years … 1.09e+6 years (mid 1.16e+6 years) Ice stops thickening at 15278–14338 m, deeper than the average ocean (3682 m) and the deepest point (10935 m): in this 1-D model the open ocean eventually freezes to the floor (salt, deep-water heat and hot spots are NOT modelled). Long-run floor (Earth's own heat only, no greenhouse): 35.2 K = -396 °F (-238 °C) Published estimate check (Popular Science 2008): "below 0 °F within a week" vs our global band 27.5…52.5 °F; "–100° in a year" vs -157.4…-12.2 °F; land-only band at 1 week -43.8…38.7 °F wrote sun-sim-summary.json ALL CHECKS PASS